NATO–Russia Tensions Escalate

By James Hall
jameshall042999@gmail.com

AI Art Conducted By James Hall

Imagine looking up from your home in Miami, Chicago, or anywhere in hometown America—and seeing Russian drones or MiG fighter jets overhead. That unsettling scenario is now a daily reality for many in Eastern Europe.

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General David Petraeus recently warned, “Russia is intentionally applying coercive pressure along NATO’s periphery with low-risk, high-impact tactics.” (HSF 2025: Interview with General David Petraeus). The timeline of recent escalations underscores the gravity of his statement:

On the night of September 10, 2025, at least 19 Russian drones—some launched from Belarus—violated Polish airspace. Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, and NATO AWACS aircraft responded swiftly, intercepting and shooting down several drones.

In response to these provocations, NATO has reinforced its eastern defenses under Operation Eastern Sentry, formally activated on September 12. Contributions include Danish F-16s and an anti-air warfare frigate, French Rafale jets, German Eurofighters, and expanded AWACS surveillance. Allied Command Operations is now constructing a multi-domain shield—integrating air, land, and sea assets from the Baltic to the Black Sea—to close gaps in early warning and counter-drone capabilities.

From September 12 to 16, 2025, Russian and Belarusian forces conducted the “Zapad-2025” exercises, rehearsing not only conventional operations but also the planning and simulated deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. These drills included command-and-control protocols for moving nuclear warheads and integrating the new Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system. Though no live-fire demonstrations occurred, the exercises sharpened strategic coordination and emphasized rapid escalation capabilities under a unified command structure.

Just a day later, on September 13, a Russian Shahed (Geran-2) drone penetrated roughly 10 km into Romanian airspace, loitering for nearly an hour before being tracked out by Romanian F-16s and later joined by German Eurofighters.

On September 12 through September 16 the "Zapad-2025" exercises took place when Russian and Belarusian forces rehearsed not only conventional operations but also “the planning of the use” of tactical nuclear weapons and the deployment of the new Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system. Troops ran through decision-making procedures for moving nuclear warheads, simulating command-and-control protocols without live-fire demonstrations. These scenarios were designed to sharpen strategic coordination between Russia and Belarus and to practice rapid escalation responses under a unified command structure. Zapad-2025 underscored Moscow’s intent to integrate nuclear options into its broader deterrence posture.

In a decisive move on September 14, Polish President Karol Nawrocki signed a classified decree authorizing the permanent stationing of NATO forces in Poland under the newly launched Operation Eastern Sentry. The decree was confirmed by Poland’s National Security Bureau, though its full contents remain undisclosed.

Then, on the morning of September 19, three Russian MiG-31 “Foxhound” interceptors entered Estonian airspace over Vaindloo Island for approximately 12 minutes. Flying without flight plans or transponders and ignoring radio contact, the jets were intercepted by Italian F-35s scrambled from Ämari Air Base. Swedish JAS-39s and Finnish fighters provided additional coverage to prevent further incursion.

On the evening of September 22, Copenhagen Airport—Scandinavia’s busiest—was shut down for nearly four hours following sightings of two to three large, unidentified drones in restricted airspace. Recent footage shows the drones bathed in a bright green glow, an unusual and conspicuous feature. The incident triggered a full-scale security response and diverted dozens of flights.

Recreation of one of the mysterious drones seen over Scandinavia.

Over the night of September 22–23, Ukraine launched a major drone strike on Moscow. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that at least 41 drones were intercepted as they approached the capital, and Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it shot down 69 UAVs overnight. The strikes prompted temporary closures at Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky airports, along with broader airspace restrictions—yet officials say no casualties have been reported from falling debris

On September 23 President Trump’s recent remarks at the UN General Assembly mark a dramatic pivot from earlier US positions that emphasized negotiated settlement and territorial compromise. He now asserts that Ukraine can “win back all of its original territory,” calling Russia a “paper tiger” and urging NATO countries to shoot down Russian aircraft violating their airspace.

On September 23–24, France conducted "Operation Poker," a major nuclear simulation exercise involving Rafale B fighter jets simulating ASMP-A missile launches, supported by A330 MRTT Phénix tankers and E-3F AWACS aircraft. The drill divided France into “enemy” and “ally” zones, with strike packages penetrating simulated defenses and executing mock nuclear strikes. This exercise is part of France’s quarterly airborne deterrence training and reflects its independent nuclear posture, known as the force de frappe. At that time some B-2 stealth bombers crossed the Atlantic during the same window, though no formal coordination with France was acknowledged.

Simultaneously on September 23-24, northern Europe experienced a second wave of serious drone incursions. Multiple large drones entered Scandinavian airspace—over Denmark, Sweden, and Norway—forcing temporary airport closures and triggering aviation warnings. Their size, endurance, and coordinated flight paths suggest state-sponsored operations rather than hobbyist activity. Officials in Copenhagen and Brussels have cited a likely Russian link. Oslo Airport was also briefly disrupted.

On September 24-25 Scandinavia saw another wave of mysterious drone activity during the night, intensifying concerns about hybrid threats in the region. Danish authorities reported drone overflights near Aalborg Airport, which serves both civilian and military functions, prompting a full airspace closure. Additional sightings occurred over Esbjerg, Sønderborg, and the Fighter Wing Skrydstrup air base, home to Denmark’s F-16s. The Danish National Police and military responded swiftly, but were unable to neutralize the drones. Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard described the incidents as part of a “hybrid attack” designed to instill fear and discord. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the systematic nature of the incursions, suggesting a professional actor was behind the operation. He noted that Denmark may invoke NATO’s Article 4 to consult with allies. These events followed similar disruptions earlier in the week at Copenhagen and Oslo airports, both situated along strategic maritime corridors. The Danish government is now pursuing enhanced drone detection capabilities and legislation to allow infrastructure owners to shoot down unauthorized drones.

On September 25 NATO has issued a stern warning that it will defend its airspace “in accordance with international law,” employing “all necessary military and non-military tools” to deter and respond to incursions.

On September 25-26 a dramatic escalation in drone activity occurred across Scandinavia overnight. In Demark numerous drone sightings were reported in just 24 hours, prompting officials to describe the situation as a “systematic operation.” There authorities documented unauthorized drone flights at four airports and military airbases—including Aalborg, Esbjerg, Sønderborg and the Skrydstrup airbase—temporarily closing Aalborg Airport, grounding flights, and prompting government leaders to label the operations a “hybrid attack” by a professional actor, possibly linked to Russian activity. In Sweden, two large drones flashing red and green lights were detected over the Karlskrona archipelago near the Swedish Navy’s main base and defense industries, triggering an investigation under aviation law. Just 10 kilometers east of the Karlskrona Naval Base at the Möcklösund bridge, civilians and police observed large drones in the area. Meanwhile in Norway, security services seized a drone piloted by a foreign national inside restricted airspace at Oslo-Gardermoen Airport adjacent to a Norwegian Air Force base, and the police intelligence service is probing connections to earlier disruptions. These events echo similar small-drone sightings over France’s Mourmelon-le-Grand military base, underscoring a wider pattern of aerial probes and security alerts across NATO countries.

This afternoon on September 26 the "Drone Wall Summit" began among NATO members Denmark, Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states who are meeting with Ukraine today to discuss a continent-wide “drone wall” initiative. EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen called it “the bedrock of credible defence.” While the origin remains officially unconfirmed, many European officials suspect Russian involvement, citing the timing, scale, and strategic targets.

Over the night of September 26–27, Danish authorities confirmed multiple incursions by one to two large, unidentified drones over key military sites—first around 20:15 near Skrydstrup Air Base and the Jutland Dragoon Regiment, then inside and just beyond the perimeter of Karup Air Base—forcing temporary airspace closures despite no civilian flights scheduled; radar units tracked the craft as defense teams mobilized but held fire to avoid collateral damage. At the same time, Norwegian police seized a drone near Oslo’s Gardermoen Airport after a brief shutdown earlier in the week, and Swedish observers spotted similar activity over the Karlskrona archipelago. Officials across Scandinavia now characterize these coordinated overflights as a possible hybrid reconnaissance effort aimed at probing NATO defenses, triggering heightened radar integration and counter-drone drills throughout the Baltic region.

Germany also reported drone sightings during the night of September 26–27. Multiple mysterious drones were spotted over northern Germany, particularly in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. These sightings occurred around the same time drones were seen near a Swedish naval base, raising concerns about potential espionage or sabotage.

Between the evening of September 27 and the morning of September 28, multiple drone sightings were reported across northern Europe, particularly near strategic military installations. In Denmark, drones were observed over Karup Air Base—its largest military site—and in the Silkeborg region, where civilians reported flashing lights later confirmed as drone activity. In response, Denmark banned civilian drone flights starting September 28. Norway’s Ørland Air Force Base, home to F-35 jets, logged sightings around 6 a.m. on the 28th, while Estonia discovered a drone fragment in the Luitemaa nature reserve near Pärnu that same morning. Germany again reported drone activity in Schleswig-Holstein on the night of the 27th, prompting investigations into potential espionage, and conducted anti-drone drills in Hamburg the following day. These incidents reflect a growing pattern of aerial incursions, prompting the EU to accelerate plans for a “drone wall” along its eastern borders amid rising concerns over hybrid warfare tactics.

On the night of September 28-29, Europe experienced a series of drone-related incidents that have heightened security concerns across multiple countries. Denmark imposed a temporary nationwide ban on civilian drones through October 3, following numerous drone sightings over military sites and critical infrastructure, prompting officials to label these events as part of a potential “hybrid attack” with Russia identified as a primary threat. Similarly, Spain’s Fuerteventura Airport suspended operations after a drone was spotted near its runway, causing flight diversions and delays. Norway reported drone activity near both a civilian airport and a military base housing F-35 fighters, while Romania saw a Turkish Airlines flight diverted due to a drone sighting over Bucharest. In Germany, drone swarms over military installations have led to calls for permission to shoot down unauthorized drones. Collectively, these incidents suggest coordinated probing of NATO airspace and infrastructure, with broad implications for regional security and defense readiness. At the same time, Denmark’s Defense Ministry has acknowledged sophisticated drone incursions over Skrydstrup Air Base, Karup Air Base, and other military facilities. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called these “the most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date,” framing them as part of a hybrid war campaign. Officials have so far avoided shooting drones down, citing the risk of debris over populated or sensitive areas. In parallel, Denmark has imposed a temporary nationwide ban on civilian drones through early October to reduce confusion and ease security operations during the EU leaders’ summit in Copenhagen.
Fighter jets are now actively being scrambled, which marks a significant escalation from earlier weeks when authorities relied mainly on helicopters and ground-based tracking.

During the early hours of September 29 at 2905:45 local time, the Danish media and international outlets reported that Denmark scrambled fighter jets over the Baltic Sea after multiple reports of unusual aerial objects, suspected drones, near the island of Bornholm. Local police confirmed that residents had seen unidentified craft, and the Air Force deployed jets to investigate. While the military has not yet issued a detailed statement, the incident is part of the same wave of incursions that has already shut down airports and triggered heightened NATO alerts.

On the night of September 29 into the early hours of September 30, multiple unauthorized drone sightings were reported across Europe, notably in Denmark, Germany, and France. In Denmark, drones were observed over key airports and military sites including Copenhagen and Aalborg, prompting a temporary nationwide ban on civilian drone flights and causing significant air traffic disruptions. Germany’s Schleswig-Holstein region also reported drone incursions that have raised concerns about possible espionage or sabotage activities. Additionally, France experienced similar unauthorized drone activity near the Mourmelon-le-Grand military base, heightening NATO’s awareness of potential hybrid threats in the region. These incidents reflect a growing pattern of drone-related security challenges across NATO countries.

Between September 30 and October 1, Europe saw a surge in drone-related activity that triggered swift military and diplomatic responses. In Denmark, sightings of unidentified drones over Copenhagen and Aalborg disrupted air traffic and led to a temporary ban on civilian drone flights through October 3. The Danish Armed Forces issued a secret mobilization order for reservists on September 28, anticipating security risks ahead of two high-level EU summits in Copenhagen. These summits, held October 1–2, convened all 27 EU leaders to address escalating threats, including proposals for a “European Drone Wall” and “Eastern Flank Watch” to counter hybrid aggression and aerial incursions. Germany, Sweden, and France deployed personnel and anti-drone systems to Denmark, while Ukraine contributed expertise through joint exercises. The European Commission also pledged €2 billion to support Ukrainian drone production.

NATO and the United States have been actively reinforcing their military presence in the Baltic region, including deploying armored units as part of a broader strategy to strengthen deterrence and readiness. Latvia has seen a significant upgrade with the establishment of the Multinational Brigade Latvia in mid-2024, expanding from a battalion to a brigade-level force with enhanced mechanized capabilities. Lithuania recently welcomed Germany’s leadership of a Multinational Brigade, further bolstering NATO’s eastern flank with armored assets. Meanwhile, the United States, through large-scale exercises like DEFENDER 25, continues to deploy armored troops and equipment across Europe to ensure rapid response capabilities and to reinforce NATO’s eastern borders. These deployments respond to evolving security challenges and serve as a clear signal of NATO’s commitment to collective defense amid regional tensions.

On the human front, Russia’s growing use of hybrid warfare—now supercharged by artificial intelligence—poses an escalating threat to vulnerable democracies across Europe. By leveraging AI not just to generate content but to manipulate public perception at scale, Moscow is targeting nations at critical political junctures. Moldova, situated between Ukraine, Romania, and Russia, has become a strategic flashpoint. As it pursues EU membership, its candidacy is now under direct threat from coordinated disinformation campaigns designed to destabilize its institutions, erode trust in Western alliances, and pull it back into Russia’s sphere of influence.

There is now credible evidence that both European and US medical systems are actively preparing for mass casualty scenarios, and the tone of these preparations has shifted from hypothetical to operational. In Europe, particularly along NATO’s eastern flank, countries like Lithuania and Estonia are conducting large-scale emergency drills involving hospitals, paramedics, and military personnel. These exercises simulate wartime conditions, including explosions and mass casualty triage, and have led to investments in trauma kits, underground operating theaters, and protective gear for medics. Officials now speak openly about the possibility of regional conflict, with Estonia’s Health Board stating, “It’s not a question of if [Russia] will attack.” In the United States, the Department of Health and Human Services has updated its Mass Casualty Incident Planning protocols, emphasizing preparedness for trauma surges, burn incidents, and chemical exposure. Resources like the DASH tool and ASPR TRACIE guidance are being disseminated to hospitals nationwide. The World Health Organization has also expanded its Mass Casualty Management training, including hybrid courses for emergency unit staff, underscoring global concern over sudden-onset events.

These efforts reflect a broader strategic posture—one that anticipates not just conventional warfare but hybrid threats, civil unrest, and large-scale emergencies.

If any of these recent drone sightings are Russian, it could spark an unimaginable war! We are all in one of the most perilous escalations between nuclear powers in decades. The real weapon here may not be the drones themselves, but the uncertainty they create, forcing adversaries to make decisions in the dark.

We remind you of quotes from our current book on Audible:

“The Cold War remained largely cold because rational leaders, on all sides, remained rational. We may now be in a new age.” Quote from—The Sword of Damocles: Our Nuclear Age.

The solution to war in Ukraine is simple, but yet so complicated.

"The reality in Europe since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is stark and sobering. Russia remains a formidable nuclear power, and while it has thus far refrained from deploying such weapons in this conflict, its repeated threats—both direct and implied—have cast a long and chilling shadow over the region. These nuclear overtures are not mere rhetoric; they are strategic signals meant to deter deeper Western involvement. Militarily, NATO possesses overwhelming conventional superiority. Russia’s advances in drone warfare and battlefield adaptation are notable, but they do not match the collective capabilities of NATO forces. In theory, the West could intervene decisively and restore Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. But in practice, the specter of nuclear escalation looms large, transforming what might seem like a straightforward solution into a perilous gamble with global consequences. Thus, the United States continues to support Ukraine through a proxy framework—arming, training, and financing its defense—while NATO nations grow increasingly assertive. Their resolve is fueled not only by moral outrage but by a dawning realization: if Ukraine falls, they too may face the same existential threat. The situation is not static—it is deteriorating, and the stakes are rising with each passing month." (Michael and James Hall" "The Sword of Damocles, Our Nuclear Age").

Quote from our recently published book, The Sword of Damocles, Our Nuclear Age—available on Amazon, Kindle and Audible—has traced this escalating conflict and changing nature of deference since the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war, offering historical context and forward-looking analysis.

Our recently published book, "The Sword of Damocles, Our Nuclear Age"—available on Amazon, Kindle and Audible—has traced this escalating conflict since the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war, offering historical context and forward-looking analysis.

Footnotes

1. “NATO Launches Operation Eastern Sentry After Drone Incursions,” MSN.com, September 14, 2025, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-launches-operation-eastern-sentry-after-drone-incursions/ar-AA1Mv4aj.

2. North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “NATO launches ‘Eastern Sentry’ to bolster posture along eastern flank,” news release, September 12, 2025, last updated September 12, 2025, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_237601.htm.

3. Patrick Tucker, “Russian drone over Romania is an early test of NATO’s ‘Eastern Sentry’ operation,” Defense One, September 16, 2025, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2025/09/russian-drone-over-romania-early-test-natos-eastern-sentry/408134/.

4. “Operation Eastern Sentry,” Wikipedia, last modified September 2025, accessed September 22, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eastern_Sentry.

5. Eli Stokols, “Backing Away from Russia, Trump Says Ukraine Should Win Back Its Land and NATO Allies Should Shoot Down Incursions,” Politico, September 23, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/23/trump-nato-shoot-down-russia-00576909.

Bibliography

Defense One.
Tucker, Patrick. “Russian drone over Romania is an early test of NATO’s ‘Eastern Sentry’ operation.” Defense One, September 16, 2025. https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2025/09/russian-drone-over-romania-early-test-natos-eastern-sentry/408134/.

MSN.com.
“NATO Launches Operation Eastern Sentry After Drone Incursions.” MSN.com, September 14, 2025. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-launches-operation-eastern-sentry-after-drone-incursions/ar-AA1Mv4aj.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“NATO launches ‘Eastern Sentry’ to bolster posture along eastern flank.” News release, September 12, 2025. Last updated September 12, 2025. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_237601.htm.

James Robert Hall