Winds of War???
By James Hall, co-author of the popular Audible book, The Sword of Damocles, Our Nuclear Age.
Few fully grasp the gravity of the phrase “existential threat.” It denotes an extinction-level event—and Russia now views the escalating series of developments around its borders as precisely that. This framing is not simply rhetorical; it aligns directly with Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks that threaten the survival of the state.
In the past twelve hours, European headlines have ignited with urgency, spanning October 6–7, as NATO intelligence revealed chilling indications suggesting that the Kremlin was actively deliberating plans to strike the Alliance.
EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius did not mince words. He urged leaders to treat the revelation “extremely seriously,” as German intelligence reportedly intercepted high-level conversations in Moscow suggesting that Russia is weighing scenarios of direct military confrontation with NATO member states.
Artistic rendering by James Hall
Yet even as these warnings ricocheted through diplomatic circles, the Kremlin dismissed them as “nonsense.” Intelligence analysts cautioned that no operational orders had been issued and no troop movements confirmed. The threat, for now, remains just that.
Still, the gravity of the moment is unmistakable. The intercepted chatter—though not proof of imminent action—underscores the volatile blend of hybrid warfare already in motion which includes cyber intrusions, disinformation campaigns, and drone incursions. These are serious indicators.
There are others:
Encrypted communications from Russia have reportedly increased, which intelligence analysts interpret as part of strategic signaling or operational coordination.
NATO aerial surveillance has intensified across the Baltic Sea, with France, Germany, and Sweden reinforcing Denmark’s air defenses.
An uptick in aerial tanker flights from the US likely supports extended-range operations and refueling for NATO aircraft, a logistical move consistent with increased readiness.
Drone incursions into NATO airspace have surged, prompting emergency consultations and Article 4 discussions among member states.
GPS jamming incidents linked to Russia have disrupted civilian and military aviation across Eastern Europe. Nearly 80 incidents have been tracked since 2022, with recent jamming affecting flights carrying top EU officials.
Submarine activity in the Arctic and North Atlantic has intensified, raising concerns about undersea cable vulnerability and maritime chokepoints.
Cyber intrusions targeting European defense ministries and energy grids have escalated, consistent with hybrid warfare tactics.
Encrypted Russian broadcasts near Kaliningrad and Belarus have surged, coinciding with satellite-confirmed construction of a massive 1.6 km-wide antenna array in Kaliningrad. Analysts believe this Circularly Disposed Antenna Array (CDAA) is designed for intercepting NATO communications, coordinating submarine operations, and enabling real-time electronic warfare.
NATO’s Operation Eastern Sentry launched, reinforcing air defense and readiness posture in response to recent provocations.
Poland’s declaration to shoot down unauthorized aerial intrusions, signaling a hardline stance that could trigger escalation.
Not seen since the Cold War and for the first time in nearly two decades, an undisclosed number of B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs were delivered in July 2025 to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk. RAF Lakenheath is the United States Air Force’s largest fighter base in Europe, hosting the 48th Fighter Wing. Those bombs—approximately 100 in total—were subsequently dispersed across six bases in five NATO countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey) to ensure survivability and enable a swift response.
DEFENDER 25, conducted from May 11 to June 24, 2025, deployed approximately 25,000 allied troops. The drills emphasized live-fire operations, armored maneuvers, river crossings, and combined arms coordination in the Baltics and High North. Following the conclusion of the DEFENDER 25 exercise, NATO has not withdrawn its forces from the Baltic region. In fact, the alliance has reinforced its military posture across the eastern flank.
Russian and Belarusian forces conducted the Zapad-2025 exercises, from September 12 to 16, 2025, rehearsing not only conventional operations but also the planning and simulated deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
France conducted Operation Poker, on September 23–24, a major nuclear simulation exercise involving Rafale B fighter jets simulating ASMP-A missile launches, supported by A330 MRTT Phénix tankers and E-3F AWACS aircraft.
Two B-2A Spirit stealth bombers (callsigns “ZOLAR 11” and “ZOLAR 12”) launched in September from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri and flew east across the Atlantic. Their mission was part of a US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) exercise known informally as a Skymaster Exercise. These flights were conducted with transponders off, simulating long-range nuclear delivery scenarios, reinforcing NATO’s deterrence messaging amid rising tensions with Russia.
France, Germany, Poland, and Lithuania are actively preparing their hospital systems for potential mass casualty events, particularly in response to escalating geopolitical tensions and the possibility of large-scale conflict.
President Trump indicated on October 7 that he had “sort of made a decision” about supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, potentially through sales to NATO countries for transfer.
The Kremlin responded with alarm, warning that Tomahawks—some variants of which are nuclear-capable—would represent a “serious round of escalation.”
French President Emmanuel Macron stated on October 1 that Europe is already “in a time of confrontation” with Russia and warned of ongoing hybrid threats including drones, cyberattacks, and disinformation.
There is no doubt the West is already in a state of hybrid war with Russia.
The sharp run-up in gold and silver prices—breaching record gold highs near $4,000 per ounce—signals investors are flocking to traditional safe-haven assets as geopolitical tensions mount.
Few fully grasp the gravity of the phrase “existential threat.” It denotes an extinction-level event—and Russia now views the escalating series of developments around its borders as precisely that, a threat to the very existence of the Russian state.
NATO expansion, Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, and perceived encirclement could meet the threshold for nuclear retaliation under Russian doctrine.
For more information on growing tensions see:
Mystery Drones Over Europe: UAP, Hybrid Attack, or Russian Escalation?
https://www.authorshall.com/blog/nwkgs8f836zkv4kgp4dppjrtign92l
Sources:
RBC-Ukraine. “Kremlin discussing a plan to attack NATO, says EU Commissioner.” RBC-Ukraine International, October 6, 2025. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/kremlin-discussing-a-plan-to-attack-nato-1759776353.html.
Novinite. “Europe on Edge: Kremlin ‘Discussing’ Invasion of NATO Countries, Intelligence Reveals.” Novinite.com, October 6, 2025.https://www.novinite.com/articles/234765/Europe+on+Edge%3A+Kremlin+%27Discussing%27+Invasion+of+NATO+Countries%2C+Intelligence+Reveals.
Yahoo News. “Russia’s Hybrid War Against NATO: Danish Intelligence Warns of Escalating Threats.” Yahoo News, October 6, 2025. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russia-hybrid-war-against-nato-202924765.html.
NATO. (2025, September 12). NATO launches “Eastern Sentry” to bolster posture along eastern flank. NATO Newsroom. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_237601.htm.
Brennan, D. (2025, September 15). What to know about 'Eastern Sentry,' NATO's response to Russian drones. ABC News. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/International/eastern-sentry-natos-response-russian-drones/story?id=125576971.
D’Urso, S. (2025, September 13). NATO launches Operation Eastern Sentry after drone incursions. The Aviationist. Retrieved from https://theaviationist.com/2025/09/13/nato-launches-operation-eastern-sentry/.
Newsweek. “US Deploys Upgraded ‘Gravity Bombs’ To Europe,” Newsweek, January 2 , 2025, https://www.newsweek.com/us-deploys-b61-12-gravity-bombs-europe-tactical-nuclear-weapons-2017485.
Nuclear Threat Initiative. “Nuclear Disarmament NATO.” Fact Sheet. Nuclear Disarmament Resource Collection. September 11, 2025. Accessed October 7, 2025. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/nato-nuclear-disarmament/.
Nikolov, Boyko. “B61-12 Nukes at RAF Lakenheath? Inside July 17 C-17 Flight.” Bulgarian Military, July 20, 2025. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2025/07/20/b61-12-nukes-raf-lakenheath-c17-flight/.
Langford, Craig. “US Nukes Deployed to England for First Time in Over a Decade.” UK Defence Journal, July 20, 2025. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/us-nukes-deployed-to-england-for-first-time-in-over-a-decade/.
Army Recognition. “US Reintroduces B61-12 Nuclear Bombs to the UK as a Strategic Signal to Russia.” Army Recognition, July 22, 2025. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/us-reintroduces-b61-12-nuclear-bombs-to-the-uk-as-a-strategic-signal-to-russia.
Bulgarian Military, “B-2A Spirit Stealth Bombers Simulate Nuclear Strike in Europe,” BulgarianMilitary.com, September 28, 2025, https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/09/28/b-2a-spirit-stealth-bombers-simulate-nuclear-strike-in-europe/.