War Alert — Signs of War
By James Hall, co-author of the popular Audible book, The Sword of Damocles, Our Nuclear Age.
Updated October 28th
Over past weeks European leaders have adopted increasingly stark language, reflecting how the drone incursions and other hybrid actions are being interpreted as part of a broader escalation cycle. Several key threads stand out:
Artistic rendering by James Hall
Introduction to the Chronology of Escalation
Few fully grasp the gravity of the phrase “existential threat.” It denotes not merely danger, but the potential collapse of a state’s continuity—an extinction-level threshold. Russia now frames the accelerating developments around its borders in precisely these terms. This is not rhetorical flourish; it aligns directly with Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks that threaten the survival of the state.
The chronology that follows is sobering. It traces a pattern of intensification that began with NATO’s eastward expansion after the collapse of the Soviet Union and culminated in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, escalation has been steady—but in 2025, it has accelerated dramatically.
In July, for the first time in nearly two decades, an undisclosed number of B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs were delivered to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk—the United States Air Force’s largest fighter base in Europe and home to the 48th Fighter Wing. Approximately 100 of these weapons were subsequently dispersed across six bases in five NATO countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey), a strategic move designed to ensure survivability and enable rapid response.
Then came DEFENDER 25, conducted from May 11 to June 24, deploying approximately 25,000 allied troops in the Baltics and High North. The exercise emphasized live-fire operations, armored maneuvers, river crossings, and combined arms coordination. Crucially, NATO did not withdraw its forces after the drills concluded. Instead, the alliance reinforced its military posture across the eastern flank.
Russia and Belarus responded with Zapad-2025, held from September 12 to 16. These exercises rehearsed conventional operations and simulated the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, signaling a doctrinal shift toward integrated escalation.
France followed with Operation Poker on September 23–24, a major nuclear simulation involving Rafale B fighter jets simulating ASMP-A missile launches, supported by A330 MRTT Phénix tankers and E-3F AWACS aircraft. The exercise underscored France’s independent nuclear posture and its role within NATO’s broader deterrence framework.
Together, these developments mark a return to Cold War-era signaling—only now with faster tempo, deeper integration, and more explicit nuclear thresholds. The chronology that follows documents this increasing escalation over just these past days.
Recent Chronology of Escalation:
October 6 – Strategic Conditioning Begins
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia has entered “Phase 0” of preparations for a possible NATO conflict. This phase includes sabotage, GPS jamming, drone incursions, and false-flag narratives designed to psychologically condition European populations for war.
October 8 – Zelenskyy Warns of Major War
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Europe faces a “significant risk of a major war,” citing fears that Putin may order a new mobilization. He described such a move as a potential trigger for wider conflict.
October 9 – EU Endorses Shoot-Down Authority
The European Parliament passed a resolution urging member states to shoot down Russian drones and aircraft that violate EU borders. This marked one of the strongest collective statements yet from the EU, signaling a willingness to enforce airspace sovereignty even at the risk of direct confrontation.
October 9 – Lavrov Issues Nuclear Warning
At the UN, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that any NATO or British attempt to shoot down Russian aircraft or drones would be met with a “decisive response.” Russian state media and Belarusian officials amplified this with threats of nuclear-capable missile deployments in Belarus and Kaliningrad, and references to the “moment of nuclear apocalypse” being closer than ever.
October 10 – Trump Reaffirms NATO Article 5
President Trump reiterated that the United States would defend Finland if attacked, underscoring NATO’s Article 5 commitment. The statement served both as reassurance to allies and a deterrent signal to Moscow.
October 10 – Gold Surges Amid War Rhetoric
Gold prices surged to $4,000 per ounce—an almost unprecedented level. Analysts attributed the spike to structural inflation pressures and the immediacy of war rhetoric, including Zelenskyy’s warning, the EU’s shoot-down resolution, and Lavrov’s nuclear threats. The surge reflects how financial markets are now mirroring the language of leaders.
October 13 – NATO Commits to 5% Defense Spending
NATO members reaffirmed a target of 5% GDP for defense spending. Germany alone faces a potential €100 billion annual increase. This marks a historic shift from post-Cold War peace dividends to full-spectrum defense mobilization.
October 13 – Baltic States Prepare for Evacuation
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania confirmed contingency plans for mass civilian evacuations in the event of Russian aggression. Measures include sheltering 300,000 in Kaunas, rerouting traffic for military priority, and mapping safe zones. Officials cite scenarios ranging from troop buildup to sabotage and civil unrest.
October 13 – NATO Begins Annual Nuclear Deterrence Exercise
NATO launched its annual nuclear readiness exercise, Steadfast Noon, hosted by the Netherlands. The drill involves 14 member states, approximately 70 aircraft, and 2,000 personnel, including dual-capable fighter jets, refueling tankers, and electronic-warfare platforms. Steadfast Noon centers at Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands with supporting operations from Belgium, Denmark, and the UK. The exercise refines command-and-control protocols for deploying and sustaining nuclear-capable aircraft amid heightened tensions.
October 13 – German Intelligence Intercepts Moscow War Planning
EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius urged European leaders to treat recent revelations “extremely seriously,” following reports that German intelligence intercepted high-level conversations in Moscow suggesting Russia is weighing scenarios for direct military confrontation with NATO member states. Germany’s foreign-intelligence chief warned that Moscow “will not shy away from direct military confrontation with NATO if necessary,” describing the current state as an “icy peace” that could “flare into a hot confrontation at any moment.”
October 13–14 – Russia Escalates Aerial Assaults
Russia launched massive overnight drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. At least 96 drones and 23 cruise missiles targeted energy and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk. A hospital in Kharkiv was hit, injuring 57. These strikes coincide with Zelenskyy’s push for long-range weapons and underscore Russia’s winter campaign to cripple Ukraine’s energy grid.
October 14 – Zelenskyy Confirms White House Meeting
President Zelenskyy confirmed an October 17 meeting with President Trump at the White House. The agenda includes defense aid, Tomahawk missiles, and sanctions. Zelenskyy emphasized that the missiles would be used only against military targets, while Trump stated he had “sort of made a decision” and might speak directly with Putin. The meeting is seen as a critical moment in shaping US posture toward deeper engagement.
October 15 – NATO Defense Ministers’ Meeting in Brussels
UK Defense Secretary John Healey and his counterparts pledged to “meet Russia’s escalation with our strength,” extending RAF Typhoons over Poland and committing counter-drone specialists to Moldova.
October 16 – Trump and Putin Hold Productive Phone Call
US President Trump and Russian President Putin spoke by phone, calling the discussion “very productive.” They agreed to convene high-level advisor meetings next week, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading the US delegation and plans for a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest to discuss a resolution to the war in Ukraine.
October 17 – Zelenskyy’s Oval Office Meeting Turns Heated
In his White House visit, President Zelenskyy and President Trump engaged in a tense exchange. Trump reportedly pressed Zelenskyy to consider territorial concessions for peace, while Zelenskyy resisted ceding any part of Donbas. The meeting underscored deep US-Ukraine divisions over strategy and raised questions about US support continuity.
October 18–19 – Ukrainian Drones Strike Energy Facilities in Russia
Ukrainian drones hit two major energy facilities deep inside Russia: Gazprom’s Orenburg gas processing plant and the Veshkaima electrical substation in Ulyanovsk Oblast. These strikes, leveraging AI-enhanced drone technology, were part of a broader campaign to disrupt Russian fuel supplies and revenue streams.
October 19–29 – Russian UVB-76 Blasts Out Mystery Transmissions
The Buzzer—Russia’s infamous UVB-76 shortwave station—broadcast four rapid-fire coded messages, marking its busiest activity since the Cold War era. Each transmission opened with the tag “NZHTI,” followed by numeric strings and codewords such as NEPTUN and TIMUS, hinting at secret orders or coordinates.
October 20 – UK to Draft Powers for Drone Shoot-Downs
British Defense Minister John Healey announced plans to introduce new legal powers enabling UK forces to shoot down unidentified drones over military installations, responding to an uptick in drone incursions along NATO’s eastern flank.
October 20 – US and Russia Schedule Further Talks
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to hold a phone call with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to discuss bilateral relations and economic issues ahead of a planned Trump-Putin summit, aiming to restore dialogue channels after months of heightened tensions.
October 13-28 – Nuclear Exercises
Russian and United States overlapping nuclear exercises are running longer than expected although official sources state they were scheduled well in advance.
Their duration and intensity appear longer and more complex than in past years. NATO’s annual Steadfast Noon drill began on 13 October 2025 and ran through about 24 October, while U.S. Strategic Command launched Global Thunder 26 on 21 October, an exercise that remains active and is designed to test nuclear command‑and‑control across the triad.
Russia, for its part, initiated its own strategic nuclear forces exercise on 22 October, personally overseen by President Putin and involving ICBMs, submarine‑launched missiles, and bomber‑fired cruise missiles. While such drills are officially described as routine, the overlap has heightened scrutiny, especially as observers have noted an unusual volume of Emergency Action Messages (EAMs) in the last 24 hours, including several “Sky King” priority transmissions that are rarely seen in exercises.
Although STRATCOM emphasizes that Global Thunder remains a planned exercise, the use of high‑priority formats and the extended timeline suggest a deliberate effort to inject realism and endurance into the scenario, even as the concurrency with Russia’s drills underscores the risks of misinterpretation.
“As part of the drill, Russia launched a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome toward the Kura range in Kamchatka. It also included the launch of cruise missiles using Tu-95MS strategic bombers, and Sineva ballistic missiles from the Bryansk submarine in the Barents Sea. The Yars ICBM has a range of 10,500 km to 12,000 km, which is more than enough to strike targets in the continental US from launch sites in Russia.(Kushal Deb, “Putin oversees Russia’s strategic nuclear drill after delay in Putin‑Trump summit,” WION, October 22, 2025, 18:50 IST, updated October 22, 2025, 18:53 IST, https://www.wionews.c.)
Assessment of radio chatter and the Oct 22 Russian Exercise
It is plausible the unusual Russian radio chatter observed since October 18 has been connected to the nationwide strategic nuclear-readiness exercise that only officially began on 22 October. Conversely, unusual HF and tactical chatter can also stem from routine operational activity, electronic-warfare tests, increased air and naval sorties, or non-nuclear command-and-control drills, so the presence of elevated radio traffic alone does not prove a direct link to nuclear command exercises.
Footnotes
Zelenskyy’s October 8 warning reported by Ukrinform and Reuters.
European Parliament resolution passed October 9, covered by Politico Europe and Euractiv.
UK government guidance on household preparedness issued via GOV.UK and interpreted by The Guardian and BBC.
Lavrov’s UN remarks and Belarusian amplification reported by TASS, Novaya Gazeta Europe, and DW.
ISW assessment published October 6, available at understandingwar.org.
Trump’s Article 5 statement reported by Fox News, CNN, and The Hill.
Gold price surge tracked by Bloomberg, Financial Times, and CNBC.
NATO’s Steadfast Noon exercise confirmed by NATO press releases and coverage from Reuters, DW, and Euractiv, October 13–14, 2025.
Kubilius’ statement and German intelligence reports covered by Novaya Gazeta Europe, EU Observer, and Tagesschau, October 13–14, 2025.
Trump–Putin phone call on October 16 reported by CNBC, Deseret News, and PBS NewsHour.
Oval Office meeting on October 17 reported by PBS NewsHour, Forbes, Military.com, and WION.
October 18–19 Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia reported by DW via MSN.
UVB-76 mystery transmissions October 19–29 covered by RFE/RL.
UK powers to shoot down threatening drones reported October 20 by Sky News, The Independent, and Metro.
US–Russia scheduled talks October 20 reported by RFE/RL and CBS News.
Kushal Deb, “Putin oversees Russia’s strategic nuclear drill after delay in Putin‑Trump summit,” WION, October 22, 2025, 18:50 IST, updated October 22, 2025, 18:53 IST.
U.S. Strategic Command official release on Global Thunder 26 (start date 21 Oct 2025): USSTRATCOM
Aviationist coverage of Global Thunder 26 scope and EAM activity: The Aviationist, https://theaviationist.com/2025/10/21/global-thunder-26/.
Defence Industry Europe report on Global Thunder 26 operations and triad integration: Defence Industry Europe
NATO announcement of Steadfast Noon 2025 (start date 13 Oct 2025): NATO.int
Aviation News report on Steadfast Noon 2025 conclusion (26 Oct 2025): Aviation News EU
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January 2, 2025
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October 6, 2025
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