War Alert — Seven Signs of War
By James Hall, co-author of the popular Audible book, The Sword of Damocles, Our Nuclear Age.
UPDATED OCT. 11
Over the past 72 hours European leaders have adopted increasingly stark language, reflecting how the drone incursions and other hybrid actions are being interpreted as part of a broader escalation cycle. Several key threads stand out:
Artistic rendering by James Hall
Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on October 8 that Europe faces a “significant risk of a major war.” The Ukrainian president fears that Putin may order a new mobilization, which he views as a potential trigger for wider conflict.¹
On October 9, the European Parliament passed a resolution urging EU member states to shoot down Russian drones and aircraft that violate EU borders.² This marked one of the strongest collective statements yet from the EU, signaling a willingness to enforce airspace sovereignty even at the risk of direct confrontation.
The UK government is now urging households to stockpile essential supplies—water, non‑perishable food, radios, batteries, first aid kits. While framed as “all‑hazards” readiness, the timing and tone have been widely interpreted as a wartime precaution, a signal that officials want the public psychologically ready for the possibility of direct conflict or major disruption. This is the first time in decades that Whitehall has so openly suggested whole‑of‑society resilience in the face of potential war.³
At the UN, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that if NATO or Britain attempted to shoot down Russian aircraft or drones, they would “regret it” and that any such act would be met with a “decisive response.” Russian state media and Belarusian officials amplified this with talk of nuclear‑capable missile deployments in Belarus and Kaliningrad, and references to the “moment of nuclear apocalypse” being closer than ever. This rhetoric is designed to deter NATO from enforcing its new policy of shooting down hostile drones and aircraft that violate EU/NATO airspace.⁴
On October 6, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia has entered the “Phase 0” of preparations for a possible NATO conflict—using sabotage, GPS jamming, drone incursions, and false‑flag narratives to condition European populations psychologically for war.⁵ This assessment situates the drone wave within a deliberate pre‑escalation strategy.
Finally, on October 10 President Trump reiterated that the United States would defend Finland if attacked, underscoring NATO’s Article 5 commitment.⁶ This statement was intended both as reassurance to allies and as a deterrent signal to Moscow, highlighting the seriousness with which Washington views the current escalation cycle.
Today, October 10, gold hit the almost unheard of price of $4,000 per ounce mark.⁷ Analysts note that while central bank policy and inflation pressures are structural drivers, the immediacy of war rhetoric — from Zelensky’s warning of “major war,” to the European Parliament’s shoot‑down resolution, to Lavrov’s nuclear threats — has amplified the safe‑haven rush. The surge in gold underscores how financial markets are now mirroring the language of leaders: Europe is openly preparing its societies for conflict, Russia is escalating nuclear deterrence, and investors are hedging against the unthinkable.
When will human-kind learn to just live in peace!
UPDATE:
Over the past two days, multiple outlets (Reuters, Novaya Gazeta Europe, US News) have confirmed that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are actively drawing up contingency plans for mass civilian evacuations in the event of a Russian buildup or attack.
Notes
“Zelensky Warns of ‘Significant Risk of Major War’ in Europe if Putin Orders New Mobilization,” The Kyiv Independent, October 9, 2025, https://kyivindependent.com.
Kateryna Hodunova, “EU Parliament Calls for Readiness to Down Russian Aircraft, Drones over Member States’ Territory,” The Kyiv Independent, October 9, 2025, https://kyivindependent.com/eu-parliament-condemns-russian-escalatory-actions-calls-for-possible-downing-of-hostile-aircraft/.
Alex Evans and Rom Preston-Ellis, “Government Urges Brits to Stockpile More Essentials Including Batteries,” Yahoo! News UK, April 14, 2025, https://uk.news.yahoo.com/government-urges-brits-stockpile-more-104144666.html.
James Saunders, “Russia War Warning: Moscow Warns Britain: ‘You’ll Regret It’ as Nuclear Missiles Placed Just Miles from NATO Border,” GB News, September 28, 2025, https://www.gbnews.com/news/world/russia-war-warning-nuclear-missiles-nato-border.
“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2025,” Institute for the Study of War, October 6, 2025, https://www.understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-6-2025/.
Erin Hale, “Russia-Ukraine War: List of Key Events, Day 1,324,” Al Jazeera, October 10, 2025.
Danny Bakst, “Current Price of Gold: October 10, 2025,” Fortune, October 10, 2025, https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-10-10-2025/.